Suppose each day that you drive to work a traffic light that you encounter is either green with probability 3/8, red with probability 1/2, or yellow with probability 1/8, independent of the status of the light on any other day. If over the course of five days, G, Y, and R denote the number of times the light is found to be green, yellow, or red, respectively, what is the probability that P[G=2, Y=1, R=2] ? Also, what is the probability P[G=R]? [15%]. Hint: consider sequences possible in a five-day observations

Respuesta :

Answer:

a

[tex]P(G = 2 ,  Y= 1 , R = 2) = 0.13184 [/tex]

b

[tex]P(G = R ) =  0.13919  [/tex]

Step-by-step explanation:

From the question we are told that

   The probability of the traffic light being green is [tex]p_g = \frac{3}{8}[/tex]

   The probability of the traffic light being red is  [tex]p_r = \frac{1}{2}[/tex]

   The probability of the traffic light being yellow is  [tex]p_y = \frac{1}{8}[/tex]

   The number of days of observation is n = 5

Generally the probability distribution function for a multinomial distribution is mathematically represented as

          [tex]Pr( X_1 = x_1 \ and \ . . .  \ and  \  X_k =x_k) =  \left \{ {{ \frac{n!}{x_1 ! , . . . x_k !} p_1^{x_1} * \cdots *p_k^{x_k} \ \ \ \ \ \ \  when \  \sum x_i = n } \atop {0 }\ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \  \ \ \ \ \    otherwise  \ } \right[/tex]

Generally the probability that P[G=2, Y=1, R=2]

     [tex]P(G = 2 ,  Y= 1 , R = 2) = \frac{5!}{ 2! * 1! * 2!} *  [\frac{3}{8} ]^2 * [\frac{1}{8} ]^1 * [\frac{1}{2} ] ^2[/tex]

=> [tex]P(G = 2 ,  Y= 1 , R = 2) = 0.13184 [/tex]

Generally the probability that P[G=R] is mathematically represented as

          [tex]P(G = R ) =  P( G =  2 ,  Y = 1 ,  R = 2) + P( G =  0 ,  Y = 5 ,  R = 0)+ P( G =  1 ,  Y = 3 ,  R = 1)[/tex]

Here

    [tex] P( G =  0 ,  Y = 5 ,  R = 0) =  \frac{5!}{ 0! * 5! * 0!} *  [\frac{3}{8} ]^0 * [\frac{1}{8} ]^5 * [\frac{1}{2} ] ^0[/tex]

    [tex] P( G =  0 ,  Y = 5 ,  R = 0) =  0.0000305176 [/tex]

Also  

     [tex] P( G =  1 ,  Y = 3 ,  R = 1)=  \frac{5!}{ 1! * 3! * 1!} *  [\frac{3}{8} ]^1 * [\frac{1}{8} ]^3 * [\frac{1}{2} ] ^1[/tex]

    [tex] P( G =  1 ,  Y = 3 ,  R = 1)=  0.0073242 [/tex]  

[tex]P(G = R ) =  0.13184 +  0.0000305176+ 0.0073242 [/tex]

[tex]P(G = R ) =  0.13919  [/tex]